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Analysis of morning 15/11/2011 for the EUR / USD

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– November 15, 2011Posted in: Forex News

While it was hoped a lull in the markets after the recent political ads in Italy and Greece, the euro continues to be under pressure in a downward spiral. The course is currently 1.3550 against 1.3705 yesterday, losing over 150 pips in a market that continues to worry.

EURUSD scenario of the day:

The situation continues to be concern for the single currency. The issuance of bonds by Italy in the day took place Monday at 6%, which has consistently cooled investors. The majority continues its descent, in a scenario that is meant to pessimistic. The lowest of the meeting was reached a few minutes ago, with technical indicators that suggest an oversold bounce and possible. It will nevertheless be attentive to the many economic figures published in the day, such as quarterly GDP for the euro zone published at 11 am, with a consensus 0.2%, and the ZEW survey of economic sentiment in Germany, at 11 am and always with a consensus of -52 points. Overall, the currency is likely to evolve in a range between 1.3550 and 1.3650 .

Fundamentals on EURUSD:

The political situation in the euro zone continues to worry the markets. The appointment of Mario Monti in Italy has left a respite to the market, which begins its descent. The indicators in the euro zone published Monday as industrial production, with a decrease to -2% against a previous increase of 1.4% is not to reassure the markets. The concerns are beginning to reach Spain and France who see their obligations begin to rise as well. Spain has seen its own bond yields back above 6% in a difficult environment, the country is preparing to borrow 7.5 billion euros in the week. France, she is growing on the third quarter, with 0.4% increase, which is a pleasant surprise to investors, yet the situation remains volatile as evidenced by the difference between the 10-year bonds of Germany and France.This morning it reached a new record of almost 172 basis points, exceeding the Recor last week.

The euro will continue to evolve in the week as different political and economic announcements in the euro area.

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Analysis of EURUSD November 2, 2011

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– November 2, 2011Posted in: Forex News
Although up from its opening price, which was 1.3654, the single European currency is far from the levels reached at the end of last week, operating at 1.3793 at 10:40 in an upward trend remains fragile and that depend on the outcome of the meetings the next day. As noted by many observers, the pair has been trending upward in the wake of the major European indices.

EURUSD scenario of the day:

From the perspective of the graphical analysis, cross EURUSD should contain the fall in the next twenty four hours through the 1.3721 area. All depend for further decisions by the G20 leaders on the crisis in Greece, which has suddenly surfaces again Monday, thanks to the announcement by the Greek Prime Minister’s desire to organize a referendum on the agreement last Wednesday. If the situation was able to stabilize, which seems possible, the EURUSD should return by the end of the week level of 1.40.
We believe that the market reaction has been disproportionate to the announcement of the Greek government then a phase of return to risk appetite should follow.
For now, the markets will evolve in most meetings and summits. Now, recall that the Franco-German couple must meet with EU officials and IMF to discuss Greece, before a meeting in the evening with Prime Minister Papandreou, whose government could fall soon .
On the menu of Forex news of the day, the meeting as a crisis in Italy to be held this afternoon at 14h GMT, under the auspices of the Minister of Economy and Finance, Giulio Tremonti.

EURUSD macroeconomic indicators of the day:

At the macroeconomic level, several indicators have been published today, no real impact on the cross jusque’à this major Forex. Thus, according to Markit, the contraction of the French manufacturing sector continued in October with a PMI index to 48.5, but slightly up from September (48.2). Pattern almost identical in the euro area since the PMI purchasing managers shrank for the third consecutive month in October to 47.1, against 47.3 in the flash estimate.The sub-index of production also plunged, from 49.6 to 46.6.
The only good news, which contrasts with the figures for employment and unemployment on Monday , the gross unemployment was down in Germany, reaching its lowest in 20 years to 6.5% or 2.373 million unemployed. This indicator has certainly played in the rise of the euro in mid-morning, due to the economic weight of Germany.
For the remainder of the session will require attention to two major U.S. events whose scope could be reduced because of reasons of the day, namely the ADP survey on employment at 14.15 and the announcement of the rateU.S. central bank , at 19:15. The now traditional press conference Ben Bernanke will also be popular in the evening.
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Forex: EUR / USD back below 1.3800

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– October 18, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Currency pair EUR / USD during the first hours of European trading session yesterday climbed above (from around the 1.3850 price slightly above 1.3900), before noon, however, the trend turned in the early American session, the price was below 1.3800. Today Eurodollars further weakened to a daily low of 1.3713.

From the beginning of yesterday’s session, there was optimism in the expectation that the European summit (23 October) will bring a definitive resolution of the crisis in the eurozone.This was clearly unrealistic expectations, which was confirmed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The markets had given a cold shower, stating that the miraculous cure for debt crisis can not from a weekend meeting of European politicians expect.

Today’s economic calendar will bring a number of interesting macro data. From Germany we will see the ZEW index of expectations of financial analysts in October. This indicator in recent months, mostly disappointing, because analysts give greater weight to the current turbulence in financial markets. And the afternoon, then the U.S. will see the September figures on the development of industrial producer prices and the August statistics on inward investment into the U.S..

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Forex: EUR / USD breaks 1.3700 level 12/10/2011

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– October 12, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Yesterday’s trading session on the currency pair EUR / USD was relatively quiet when the price moved in the price range 1.3680 / 1.3560. The market followed the above two events – Slovak vote on supporting the second version EFSF result of the mission and representatives of the ECB, EC and the IMF in Greece.

The result of the events:

  • Slovak government fell. Prime Minister Iveta Radičová joined parliament votes to increase the powers of the euro zone rescue fund with a vote of confidence to the government.Changes in the fund yesterday as expected, did not support the second most powerful members of government parties Freedom and Solidarity. However, now when you open the way for early elections was the adoption EFSF Slovak apparently nothing to prevent.
  • Positive news came from the so-called Troika, ie the representatives of the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF on a new benefit to help Greece. Inspectors recommended to release the next tranche of financing, which should occur at the beginning of November.For the short term the euro is a positive message, because it temporarily eased the tensions around Greece, but in the long term it does not address the situation.

Currently the euro against the dollar broke through the narrow price range ( rectangular formation ) and continues on a steep growth. Currency pair EUR / USD broke through the 1.37 price level and grows up to 1.3766.

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Forex: EUR / USD is near key resistance

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Best Forex Brokers
– October 11, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Yesterday’s trading session was successful for risky assets, when European shares attributed afternoon around 2%. The currency can then scored further gains against the dollar, he strengthened from morning levels around 1.3470 to 1.3698 at. Euro helped report that Germany and France have a plan to help protect the banking system. Finally, a well-finished and data on industrial production in August from France and Italy. Italian production is even increased month-on more than 4%.

Currency pair EUR / USD after yesterday’s huge gain (EUR / USD 1.3700 level separated by only a few pips) calmed down and today’s trading session is trying to correct yesterday’s motion.

 

 

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EURUSD Forex Analysis of October 10, 2011

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Best Forex Brokers
– October 10, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Monday is a charge ahead after a weekend strong emotions for financial markets. Dexia, the Franco-German discord and threats of rating agencies in Europe, specifically Belgium, have marked these two days of rest for Forex traders.

What you should know before starting the week:

Despite substantial disagreements about the fund, including how to recapitalize banks and the use of EFSF , the Franco-German couple has tried to show a facade of unity by giving one month to resolve the crisis in the Europe in providing effective solutions.

Ambitious and probably unrealistic, judging from past the procrastination of European right to enforce the key decisions taken at the summit on 21 July.

On the bank, not surprisingly, the group already weakened since 2008, DEXIA, moving towards an orderly unwinding, which would result in broad terms, a 100% nationalization of the Belgian entity, Dexia Bank Belgium and creation in France of a new bank dedicated to local communities. The sovereign fund of Qatar would also be interested in several acquisitions after having already provided decisive support to the Greek banking sector.

 EURUSD scenario of the day:
During the last week, the EURUSD has evolved in the fluctuation band 1.3146-1.3517. For this new week, the cross is likely to evolve in a similar band of 1.31 to 1.36. At 10:30, the euro stood at 1.3544, up. From a graphical point of view, we can see the signs of a good corrective recovery towards 1.3456 so we recommend betting on the decline for the next 48 hours. The main support to be considered is 1.3374.
Macroeconomic data:
 From a macroeconomic point of view , calm Monday in perspective with the foreign exchange market mainly to the index Sentix 10:30. The first session of the week will be ideal to lead the new weekend …
Update on the ounce of gold:

During the last week, an ounce of gold has continued to evolve between 1600 and 1700 dollars. The main entry points in gold were below 1600 two weeks ago but the likelihood of an ounce, a technical point of view, go back towards the drop is high. For the follow an upward trend oz durable, it is still necessary that gold exceeds the critical level of 1684 dollars. The main supports for the ounces are this week in 1596 and 1583 dollars.

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Forex: EUR / USD broke the 1.3500 area 10/10/2011

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Best Forex Brokers
– October 10, 2011Posted in: Forex News

The euro on Friday against the dollar strengthened slightly thanks to good U.S. data from the labor market (NFP report). Number of new jobs created reached 103 thousand., Which was almost twice what the market expected. However, at the end of trading the euro against the dollar erased its gains on news of a downgrade of Italy and Spain, the international rating agency Fitch.

During today’s Asian session and morning hours, however, the Euro strengthens again.Currency pair EUR / USD and actually broke the 1.3524 highs on Friday and continues to grow to today’s maximum price, which is still 1.3549. It seems that investors encouraged German-French agreement to resolve the debt crisis in the euro area, although information about the details of the new rescue package for banks will not be published until the end of the month.

In today’s trading day will be less liquid, as in the U.S., Japan and Canada public holidays. In the euro area, at least we will see some interesting data (in Italy and France will be published in August, industrial production in France for business confidence in Germany, data on foreign trade), however, trading would not significantly affect not (on Friday, has already been published in German industrial production, in advance, factory orders are published).

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Forex News – EUR / USD Weekly Analysis for the week of 19 to 23 September 2011

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Best Forex Brokers
– September 24, 2011Posted in: Forex News

19 Monday was the deception that prevailed in the markets after a disappointing ECOFIN during which European finance ministers have not moved an inch on the Greek case. Timothy Geithner was also present as an observer and the least we can say is that Europe and the United States seems to be some differences of opinion, including the Tobin Tax … Jean Claude Trichet also did not tackle the private secretary to the U.S. Treasury “donor lesson”, stressing that the economic situation of the United States was less glorious …

 

The tone was set and the Euro continued to evolve in its downward trend with the threshold of support in 1.36. Only an anticipation of monetary easing from the Fed has allowed the euro to recap the bearish gap opening violently before turning to go down to test the threshold of 1.34. Ben Bernanke announced a shell game going on responding to the pet name of “twist” consisting in extending the duration of U.S. Treasury bonds.

 

At the same time, Italy saw the note on its sovereign debt degraded by the rating agency Standard and Poor’s (the long-term rating of A + to A and the short-term A + to A -1 -1) , reviving fears of contagion from the debt crisis in the Euro Zone. The German ZEW index showing no sign of optimism, however.

 

Greece soon not have to redo the headlines as the Troika (EU, IMF, ECB) audit mission in Athens was not satisfied with the results of the austerity measures. Indeed, Greece lags behind its privatization program. The IMF has requested that further measures be taken to obtain its approval for the payment of yet another tranche of aid. Greece is under pressure because the latter may be lacking without at October 8 billion from the EFSF.

 

The weekend was so tense for Greece, which began to seriously doubt install the ability to avoid default and including 8 banks were degraded by Moody’s. After the president of the AMF and a member of the Governing Council of the ECB, it was the turn of the Greek Finance Minister in person to consider the possibility of a defect in Parliament …

 

Thus, only a mini G20 finance ministers and central bankers at the IMF headquarters in Washington has allowed the euro to not completely collapse over the weekend. The latter seemed unanimous in their desire to ensure calm the games in Europe. The agreement in principle Friday of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) about the fact that it is necessary to help Europe to save what remains of economic recovery has also weighed in the balance.

 

Euro falls more than ever, without a downward trend on the horizon and nothing seems able to reassure investors if it is the next G20 chaired by France. François Barroin gold and has already said that France would try to accept a tax on financial transactions (Tobin) that could generate a substantial windfall (50 billion in Europe alone) that may be sufficient to fuel up EFSF that growth back in Europe … The task will not be easy …

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EUR / USD Analysis 22/09/2011

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Best Forex Brokers
– September 22, 2011Posted in: Forex News
The EUR USD appears sharp decline from its opening level at 1.3526 at 10:15 am Paris time, against 1.3577. The downward phase of the single European currency is driven by the general trend of financial markets that are clearly on the downside despite the Fed.

EUR / USD scenario of the day:

As usual, when the financial prophecies come true, they are ultimately more the expected impact. This is what happened yesterday with the operation of the twistFederal Reserve will be, by the end of June 2012, to sell for $ 400 billion of Treasury bills to buy an equivalent amount with a maturity longer. The objective is to reduce interest rates in the long term to boost investment and buy real estate securities without increasing the size of its portfolio, which should support the loan market.

 

However, as the operation of twist Kennedy years, investors fear that the funds committed are not sufficient and that the operation will lead ultimately to failure.

 

Consequence of this withdrawal into the safe haven continues with a nice drop in EUR USD which should lead the pair to evolve into a canal in revised 1.3450 1.3650 for the most optimistic. Having attacked the level of 1.3500, the major cross may continue its fall. Our bullish view expressed earlier this week is, it is seen, to cast into oblivion the moment.

 

At the economic calendar this session, we recall that new applications for unemployment benefits will be published at 14.30 while the U.S. leading indicators and the index of confidence in the euro area will be to 16h.

Focus on fundamentals

 

Let’s start with the first European PMI indicators that are being published right now. Nothing good seems to emerge of the first indicators. Thus, according to Markit survey, the private sector activity in Germany grew at its slowest pace in over two years in September while new orders declined for the third consecutive month. In figures, this gives a composite index to 50.8 against 51.3 in August, the index approaching the level of contraction. In industry, the index came out flash down to 50.0 while the index flash services stood at 50.3.

 

The other indicators expected PMI should confirm the slowdown in economic activity in the Eurozone, indicating that growth in the third quarter should be very poor.

 

Let us now jump across the Atlantic where the situation is more encouraging. If the IMF calls for recapitalization of some European banks, U.S. banks are stronger. So yesterday, Moody’s downgraded the credit ratings of Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup holding that the federal government would be less quick to help them in 2008. Of course, the titles of these groups have won yesterday on Wall Street but it is especially the situation of Bank of America has aroused the most concern since long-term notes and short-term bank which have been degraded was not the case of her peers. As we have already explained in these columns , the U.S. bank knows of the enormous difficulties because of billions of dollars of losses on mortgage loans and the need to raise capital to comply with new regulations.
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USD / CHF: looking for other investors a safe haven 16/09/2011

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– September 16, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Currency pair USD CHF after a temporary high at 0.8926 to 0.8646 corrected. The decline may continue in the first puncture 0.8646 to the 0.8600, where the EMA 55 on the 4H chart. To further decrease the Bears have had more pronounced dominance after breaking 0.8600 and would then fall to the next level was 0.8570. As you move up will be a strong resistance level of 0.8926. Penetration of this level would mean further significant recovery and growth to the psychological level 0.9.

On the daily chart we see the development of long-term decline followed by “fundamental” trend line penetration (in connection with the intervention SNB). The market subsequently ascended to the level of 0.8926, which corresponds to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement values ​​between 1.0065 and 0.7064. Correction of this value could face up to 0.8200 – close to the EMA 55 on 1D graph, which is also a strong support, the trend line, as well as the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.0065 and 0.7064 values ​​and the round number . Here again we might expect to turn back into growth.

The daily pivot points:

  • R3 0.8927
  • R2 0.8862
  • R1 0.8777
  • P 0.8712
  • S1 0.8627
  • S2 0.8562
  • S3 0.8477
eur usd technical analysis
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Forex: EUR / USD appreciation of the situation 16/09/2011

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– September 16, 2011Posted in: Forex News

The European Central Bank (ECB) during yesterday’s trading session today announced that in cooperation with the U.S. central bank (Fed) and other major central banks to provide dollar liquidity to European banks. They had recently faced the reluctance of international banks lend dollars to them in fear, as the European banking system could be affected by the potential collapse of Greece. Currency pair EUR / USD in response to this report sharply appreciated and got up to the level of 1.3900. Currently the market is undergoing correction of yesterday’s growth and traded at 1.3810 level.

eur usd analysis 16 09 2011

Today’s economic calendar offers a number of important data. The most important ones come in the afternoon from the U.S. in the form of purchases of securities and the September index of consumer confidence in the University of Michigan, where he expects a slight improvement to 57.3 from 55.7.

However, the most important event of today’s trading session will be a meeting of finance ministers and central bankers EU in Wroclaw. Leaders of the financial sector in the EU, Poland had over the weekend to discuss the possible solution to Europe’s debt crisis. The conference will arrive as U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

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Forex: EUR / USD for a six-month low 12/09/2011

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Best Forex Brokers
– September 12, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Last week marked another significant declines in the market of the euro against the dollar when the currency pair EUR / USD was given to the lowest value for the last six months. Strong sale was due to another wave of speculation about the possible collapse of the euro and Greece’s withdrawal from the eurozone.

While the early European session on Friday, the price of EUR / USD is still holding above the 1.3900 level and at the end of U.S. trading Eurodollars has been found well below 1.3700. The euro continued to fall even during today’s Asian session, when the course got to reach the level of 1.3500. Currently traded around 1.3600.

Looking at the daily chart (D1) the currency pair EUR / USD we can see a very oversold market.Euro remains in a bear trend, however, could try to correct a significant decline from last week. In this case, the boundary resistance at the following levels:


eur usd analysis 12/09/2011

Today’s economic calendar: Given the current absence of new macro-economic data, will be today for EUR / USD is more important news coming about the situation of Europe’s debt crisis.

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Forex: EUR / USD is responding to repeated problems of Greece 01/09/2011

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Best Forex Brokers
– September 1, 2011Posted in: Forex News

Currency pair EUR / USD has weakened on news from the United States that were better than expected, and it is re-focusing on the problems in Greece. The price has come under increasing short-term trend line to direct the movements of EUR / USD over the past few days.The hourly chart shows that momentum is pointing down and the 4 hour chart, the prevailing bearish direction. The enclosed daily chart you can see movement in a narrow range on a daily basis.

Resistance levels: 1.4410 1.4440 1.4475

Support levels: 1.4350 1.4310 1.4280

eur usd analysis

Fundamental summary:
Consumer inflation in the euro area was estimated according to a preliminary 2.5%, the same as in July. Next followed the U.S. ADP report, which showed that in August were added in the private sector, 91 thousand. new jobs, so there was a decrease compared to July’s indicator value. The August light industrial activities in Chicago, although compared to its July value decreased slightly to 56.5 b (from 58.8 b), but beat market expectations. It goes on throughout the day reported that an independent committee of experts of the Greek Parliament highlighted the failure of government measures that would consolidate public finances. The Committee of the Greek national debt out of control. This message obviously spooked markets and was responsible for re worried about the euro.

Today’s economic calendar offers a large amount of new data. In Europe, published by PMI, which is more or less expected to confirm the preliminary results that showed a decline. It will also be important as the final figure for the German GDP in Q2 11, including structures. The U.S. market will once again expect the development of new applications for jobs in August and the ISM indicator.

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Forex: intraday trading EUR / USD 22/08/2011

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– August 22, 2011Posted in: Forex News

The euro against the dollar strengthened on Friday and got up to the level of 1.4450, where the market recovered from its morning level of 1.43. The reason for Friday’s sale, the total dollar assets as well as reduction of stock exchanges around the world.

Currently, the EUR / USD traded around 1.4415 (daily maximum). The boundary resistance lies at 1.4450 (maximum 18/19. August) and 1.4517 (maximum 17 August). In contrast, lies on the boundary Support 1.4345 (daily minimum) and then 1.4300/10 (intra-day level) and 1.4260 (minimum 19 August).

eur usd analysis

Today’s economic calendar is empty and unscheduled makrozprávy important day. Markets would now be of interest only to report the ECB, which today publishes a report on the bond buy-outs and shows what happened during the rescue operation to reduce the interest burden of peripheral euro area countries in the past week.

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