In the aftermath of a meeting without foundation of the Bank of Canada, which has kept interest rates unchanged at 1%, a level that has not changed since a year and a background of increasing pressures on theeuro area , the USDCAD pair posted a slight decline this morning in early trade, operating at 1.0080 at 9:45 am Paris time, against 1.0096 at the close yesterday.
Analayse fundamental USDCAD of the day:
The stagnation in interest rates in Canada should not, according to many analysts, a real problem in terms of economic growth, as evidenced by the fact that the country has returned to growth in the third quarter, mainly due to an increase in exports. Many macroeconomic indicators point to the health of the Canadian economy that is resistant to the crisis rather well. Is it so the index of supply managers (59 against 55 expected) or the index of building permits (11.9% against 1.9% expected). The optimism of many observers is also supported by recent data from the United States, which “ indicate that growth in the United States was a little more robust ”than expected, mainly due to strong consumer spending and investment of companies.
For H2, Canadian growth may be slightly greater than the anticipated Bank of Canada in late October. Like the U.S., consumer spending is more important than expected business investment remain high.
On the side of inflation, the Canadian institution should maintain its target of 2% despite the increase in consumer prices more than expected and is expecting a decline by 2013.
However, Governor Mark Caney remains pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth. The landscape may darken. Concerned, the recession expected by all in the eurozone and the persistent problem of the U.S. deficit could have unexpected effects next year on trade.
USDCAD Technical Analayse of the day:
From a graphical point of view, all indicators are bearish for the cross with a holder that is stagnant at 1.0080. The break of this support could lead to a downward trend up to 1.0. The fracture resistance located at 1.02 would, however, a return to 1.0230.
From the perspective of the economic calendar , few indicators that day pretty quiet. We will note, however, will be published tomorrow at 14:30, Paris time, the price index for new housing (GM) which falls at the same time that new weekly claims for unemployment benefits in the United States. Both economic figures, however, may have little effect on the pair.
Note that obviously should closely monitor price trends of oil , which has a major influence on parity.
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