Forex News Archive

Currency pair EUR / USD experienced one of the worst weeks for the last time, and the deepest recorded weekly losses for the last about three months. The reason for the relatively rapid disenchantment of the exaggerated expectations of the outcome of EU summit. These markets is not satisfied and, moreover, greatly increased concerns about possible reductions in ratings of European countries.

Current price of EUR / USD is: 1.3023

The EUR / USD remains strong downward trend with a slight correction above 1.3000 level and it seems as if the buyers disappeared. In order to correct for significant levels of 1.3150 and 1.3200, it is necessary to overcome resistance in the zone nearest 1.3065 to 1.3075. At the bottom of the short-term support level at 1.2940 / 50, which is the minimum price from last week. Another objective is then an annual minimum 1.2875.

Support levels: 1.2980, 1.2950, ​​1.2880
Resistance levels: 1.3070, 1.3150, 1.3200

A week before Christmas is too interesting not offer the macroeconomic indicators. The euro is worth mentioning the German Ifo index, which will be published on Tuesday and the United States, then we will see some of the data of the local real estate market.

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Currency pair is in a slightly downward trend, moving below the pivot intradenního 1305 and EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3014 EURUSD. 20hodinové Bollingerovo band relative strength or oscillator RSI provides no clear signal to enter the position. Preferred intraday scenario allows for the weakening of the euro to the level of 1295 EURUSD. Current value: 1.3014 pivotal level: 1.305 Preferred scenario: SHORT positions. If the currency pair keep below the pivot intradenního in 1305, then the target level of 1.295 and 1.288. Alternative scenario: Long position. If the currency pair breaks through the surface intradenního pivot upward course has room to grow to 1.31 and 1.316. intraday trend may change during the day, watch the updated several times daily EURUSD technical analysis  HERE . Key technical levels: 1.316 1.31 1.305 a , 3014 (last price) 1.295 1.288 1.2855 Comments: Fitch on Friday gave rating 6 euro area countries negative outlook and warned against the increasing risk of recession in Europe. The euro is again under pressure, and today you could be attributed to additional losses. Preferred intraday scenario allows for the weakening of the euro to the level of 1295 EURUSD.

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The SECO forecasts for the Swiss economy were published yesterday.
In France, consumer prices rose 0.3% over the month in November, bringing the annual increase to 2.5%. Last October, the price increase was 0.2% over the month. Note that in Greece, a two-day meeting bringing together the Greek authorities and private creditors in terms of debt swap ended yesterday without agreement. However, the consultations should continue.

Finally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revised sharply downward its forecast for global oil demand this year and next year because of the difficult international economic environment and high prices. According to the monthly report of the IEA, oil consumption is expected to be 160,000 barrels per day less than expected earlier in 2011, and 200,000 barrels per day less than expected in 2012, consumption of 90.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

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Yesterday, the central bank of South Korea has kept its rates for the sixth consecutive month in a difficult context, marked by fears of a recession and the necessary fight against inflation, which reached 4% in the country.

The Central Bank of Iceland has acted similarly by keeping interest rates unchanged at 4.75% as the Bank of England has kept interest rates at 0.5%.

Moreover, the central bank of Argentina confirmed the likely slowdown in economic growth next year to 6% against 9% expected this year. Argentina displays, despite the projected decline in GDP, a record activity in the world, thanks to the good health of its agricultural sector and measures to support domestic demand made by the government.

In France, the BoF confirmed predict zero growth of the economy in the fourth quarter 2011, based in particular on the results of its monthly business survey. Thus, the business climate indicator in industry decreased by one point in November to 95 points and the service remained at 95.

The announcement of the economic opportunities of the ECB and the refusal of a sizeable debt-troubled countries of the eurozone have depressed the market before the EU summit. Following the announcements of the ECB boss, Mario Draghi , a real market downturn took place yesterday.

Fundamental analysis of the day EURUSD

As expected, the ECB decreased its key interest rate 0.25% for the second time in two months, to 1%, its lowest level since the introduction of the euro. Moreover, it also announced a package of measures to facilitate access to liquidity to banks through the establishment of two loans of unlimited three-year fixed rate via a relaxation of the assurances required banks to access these loans.

However, these measures were not enough to reassure the markets as they awaited the announcement of a sizeable sovereign bonds of eurozone countries in difficulty. To this must be added that the downward revision of the economic outlook for the next two years also weighed heavily in the investment strategies of traders yesterday.Growth prospects for 2012 increased from 1.3% to 0.3% against a background of declining inflation , opening the door to further rate cuts in coming months. In an atmosphere of deception, the euro opened the day down 0.16% against the U.S. dollar at 1.3312 dollar and the CAC 40 yields 0.78% in early trade at 3071.19 points.

Some progress has also been noted in Brussels but they are not quick to restore confidence. An agreement was reached during the night to strengthen fiscal discipline in the euro area, that agreement will be adopted only 17 because of the refusal of the United Kingdom. Moreover, now, the ECB will manage both the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) that the future European Stability Mechanism (MES) to increase confidence in these funds.

For the rest of the day, the economic calendar is almost empty for the common currency, with the exception of the publication of the French government’s budget balance, which was submitted at 8:45 am (Paris time) with a slightly more positive that expected. Investors will therefore focus the rest of the day the outcome of the European Summit.

EURUSD technical analysis of the day

Uncertainty dominates the foreign exchange market on the outcome of EU summit, and German sources, already suggest a new high only in the eurozone. The volatility will obviously increase in the coming hours and we fear the erratic movements of the cross. The general trend is to lower the euro as our writing table on a relative failure of the summit . It is highly unlikely that Europe has announced measures that will restore lasting confidence. At best, a burst of markets may occur in the coming sessions. Note the main support for the pair today to 1.3290 and 1.3486 resistance.

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On the production front, Germany has announced an increase for the industry of 0.8% over the month in October, according to a provisional figure. If this information is confirmed, then the German production had resumed rising after two months of decline, and has even achieved a better performance than expected by the consensus which projected 0.4%.

Across the Channel, industrial production fell by 1.7% according to the ONS. In detail, the fall in manufacturing output is 0.7% over the month and that of the metallurgical industry of 2.1%. Note that the Greek Parliament yesterday adopted a new austerity budget for next year which assumes a significant reduction of public deficit to 5.4%, which is clearly a very ambitious goal, and probably difficult to achieve according to many observers .

Finally, two days after the warning from S & P against the eurozone , the German debt awarded yesterday to 4.09 billion euros of five-year bonds at average yield of 1.11% with a coupon of 1.25% . The coverage ratio stood at 2.1%. Clearly, observers have concluded that the operation went particularly well for Germany, few investors really feared a worsening of the country’s sovereign rating in coming months.

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If policies, at least in continental Europe and the United States, unanimously show their confidence in the strength of the eurozone, UK bettors are in unison with their politicians, David Cameron in the lead, which are rather skeptical about the future of the currency of seventeen.

This is not new to know that the British position with respect to European integration. Thus, it is a surprise to anyone, or almost, to learn that the dawn of the European Summit, players from across the Channel are betting on the first country that will leave the eurozone. Also no surprise when we learn that Greece is the favorite …

Yesterday, William Hill, one of the bet British specialists, has announced the ratings right now on the future of the euro area. This is a rating of 3 against 1 is proposed for the disappearance of the euro by 2013 (an increase of 3 Book for a £ 1 bet if the worst case scenario occurs) and the house of paris table there are also four in five chance that Greece leave the euro .

Anyone who follows the British Paris will remember that this is not the first time that our British friends rely on one end of the euro. In the past, they quickly became disillusioned … This may, again, to be the case but they may be right, however, an output of the euro area of Greece during the next year. Many economists do not rule out this scenario, despite the payment of a further tranche of aid to the country recently.

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In the aftermath of a meeting without foundation of the Bank of Canada, which has kept interest rates unchanged at 1%, a level that has not changed since a year and a background of increasing pressures on theeuro area , the USDCAD pair posted a slight decline this morning in early trade, operating at 1.0080 at 9:45 am Paris time, against 1.0096 at the close yesterday.

Analayse fundamental USDCAD of the day:

The stagnation in interest rates in Canada should not, according to many analysts, a real problem in terms of economic growth, as evidenced by the fact that the country has returned to growth in the third quarter, mainly due to an increase in exports. Many macroeconomic indicators point to the health of the Canadian economy that is resistant to the crisis rather well. Is it so the index of supply managers (59 against 55 expected) or the index of building permits (11.9% against 1.9% expected). The optimism of many observers is also supported by recent data from the United States, which “ indicate that growth in the United States was a little more robust ”than expected, mainly due to strong consumer spending and investment of companies.

For H2, Canadian growth may be slightly greater than the anticipated Bank of Canada in late October. Like the U.S., consumer spending is more important than expected business investment remain high.
On the side of inflation, the Canadian institution should maintain its target of 2% despite the increase in consumer prices more than expected and is expecting a decline by 2013.
However, Governor Mark Caney remains pessimistic about the prospects for economic growth. The landscape may darken. Concerned, the recession expected by all in the eurozone and the persistent problem of the U.S. deficit could have unexpected effects next year on trade.

USDCAD Technical Analayse of the day:

From a graphical point of view, all indicators are bearish for the cross with a holder that is stagnant at 1.0080. The break of this support could lead to a downward trend up to 1.0. The fracture resistance located at 1.02 would, however, a return to 1.0230.
From the perspective of the economic calendar , few indicators that day pretty quiet. We will note, however, will be published tomorrow at 14:30, Paris time, the price index for new housing (GM) which falls at the same time that new weekly claims for unemployment benefits in the United States. Both economic figures, however, may have little effect on the pair.
Note that obviously should closely monitor price trends of oil , which has a major influence on parity.

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The uncertainty in financial markets, the approach of a new crisis EU summit in Brussels, very singularly manifested on the cross EURCHF yesterday which saw high volatility, ranging between 1.2329 and 1.2428. The impact of S & P warning was quite limited on the course – because the players have already built a deteriorating outlook for the economies of the euro area – but the excitement remains regarding the outcome of the meeting of the ECB and especially the EU summit on December 8 and 9. Unlike yesterday, the Swiss foreign exchange market is quiet, with a cross that has opened up trade to 1.2404 before recording a slight performance which led to 1.2413 at 10 am, Paris time.

EURCHF scenario of the day:

Parity has received the support of the 200 SMA on the daily chart and near resistance now at 1245 , it failed to pass the last two months. Therefore, there is a good chance it will fail again and leans towards 1.22. However, a break could trigger bullish successful many automatic orders that could increase parity. For now, we offer thechannel fluctuation of 1.2350 to 1.2450 , with a central pivot point at 1.2389.

Focus on the fundamentals EURCHF of the day:

From a macroeconomic point of view, the timing of the day is relatively empty and the few European figures should have a negligible impact on the pair. Note that the SNB published its foreign exchange reserves in November, which are strongly folded in the space of one month from CHF 245 040 000 000 229 280 000 000 to CHF. This decrease is mainly due to the maturity of “currency swaps and repo transactions.” Rumors have also reported in recent days,buying euros by the BIS in the financial markets on behalf of the SNB , but neither institution has been willing at this time comment on market rumors. It is common knowledge that the SNB secret love grow in its monetary operations.

For the rest of the week, we expect an increase in volatility at the European Summit Auto so we invite you to place your well stop loss .

Despite the announcement of a new European treaty for a new governance of the euro area last night, the rating agency S & P decided to place the notes on negative watch for long-term debt of fifteen countries in the euro area, among them six countries rated “AAA” including Germany, Austria, Finland, France, Luxembourg and the Netherlands. This morning the euro has opened down slightly against the U.S. dollar at 1.3383 against 1.3394 late Monday, the market apparently relativizing this announcement. Field stock, the impact is more noticeable since the CAC 40 opened the day lower by 0.8% to 3176 points after a rebound of 1.15% to 3201 points yesterday. Financial stocks were hardest hit, especially with Credit Agricole -5.1%, with Societe Generale and BNP Paribas -4.3% with -3.1.

Fundamental Analysis EUR USD

The beginning of the week was positive for the majority of European stocks and the euro because of the hope generated by the announcements of European leaders on a plan to control the debt crisis through stricter enforcement fiscal discipline in the area. This plan was presented, in outline, in Paris yesterday and should be the basis of discussions at the European Summit of the weekend.

However, rating agencies have once again thrown the disorder in the markets. Indeed, the rating agency S & P placed on negative watch notes of indebtedness of fifteen countries in the euro area which means that there is a probability greater than 50% note that these countries be reduced by three months. Among the countries most threatened cities, France, under pressure from the recent S & P and Moody’s against the country. Note also that France is the only country for which S & P plans to lower the rating by two notches debt to “AA” .

Although the news is dominated currently by policy statements on the announcement of S & P, the traders now see to be careful as the announcement of quarterly GDP in the euro area and German industrial orders.

Technical Analysis EURUSD

EURUSD fell to 1.3336 in late Asian session, its lowest level since Nov. 30.This morning at 8 am (Paris time), the euro bought 1.3383 dollars against 1.3394 at the close yesterday after a small bounce Monday morning with its highest point at 1.3461. Our vision remains bullish for the pair on the next day as the announcement of S & P is somewhat tempered by the market and is not in itself a surprise. However, the upside potential is limited and the resistance at 1.3550 should act as insurmountable barrier for the moment. stabilization around 1.34 is expected for the next twenty four hours .

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Last Friday, the central bank of South Korea announced it had bought 15 tons of gold in order to combat the current volatility in financial markets.Thus, its reserves in gold now amounted to 54.4 tonnes, about 1% of its foreign exchange reserves. This is the second time this year as the establishment buys gold. It had acquired 25 tons in June and July, the first purchase of gold since the Asian financial crisis of 1997 and 1998.Because of the crisis, since 2010, central banks have again become net buyers of gold in the world, a first for nearly 22 years.

Note also that the military power in Egypt, provided a loan of one billion dollars to the central bank, which is facing a cast of its foreign reserves since the popular uprising of the early . The emergency loan was granted to cover the country’s imports for the three months to come.

Finally, the investor George Soros , who is one of the apostles of the creation of eurobonds, expressed during a speech to the International Senior Lawyers Project, his concerns for the global economy. In particular, note that said the financial system is collapsing and that the developed world committed quickly “ the trap of debt deflation ”mechanism that was highlighted in particular by Irving Fisher.

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In the middle primary for the Republican nomination, the debate is, of course, also on a new reform of the U.S. banking sector while the Dodd-Frank , who had allegedly intended to kneel U.S. banks, as desired by the President Obama, is insufficient.

This is Jon Huntsman ( following cons ), a stranger on this side of the Atlantic, which launched a new salvo against U.S. banks “too big to fail” as Bank of America or Goldman Sachs . Former U.S. ambassador to China, Republican, who collaborated with the Obama administration, is running for the Republican nomination. Having received the official support of the very serious Wall Street Journal for his tax reform proposal, the candidate revealed there is little a radical banking reform that aims to remove banks’ too big to fail “.

This would result in a dismantling of major U.S. banks to prevent systemic risk, as has occurred with the case of Citigroup or Lehman Brothers a few years ago.

The interest of the thought of Jon Huntsman is to assess the cost that each bank to bring the economy in terms of what all of its assets are in terms of GDP. The advantage of this approach is not in itself prevent further bailouts but to directly support the banks, in anticipation, the potential cost .

It’s an approach that, in absolute terms, may also have an interest in Europe and France, in the case of some banks, although the debate on reforming the banking sector in Europe is at a standstill.

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Financial markets are more than happy to open trade. And for good reason! The head of the Italian Council announced a new austerity plan of about 30 billion euros yesterday which gave hope to traders . This first step opens the European week in good conditions, in contrast to previous weeks that had been polluted by different voltages.

The primary appointment of the day is the meeting between Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who must lead to concrete proposals to strengthen Europe. Leaders are a priori agreement on a treaty change and greater fiscal discipline, but differ on greater involvement of the ECB , an initiative that is supported by Paris, but criticized by Berlin.

At the opening of European trade, the euro was changing around the CHF 1.2358 and continued to increase throughout the morning on the back of traders’ optimism to reach CHF 1.2374 at 11:30 am Paris time.

EURCHF scenario of the day:

The Euro / Swiss Franc was launched yesterday in a strong bull rally and validated over a return of 1.23 with a buy signal. The course has managed to reach the next resistance located at 1.24. The cross EUR / CHF has changed between 1.2225 and 1.2394. For this meeting, the upward trend of the euro should be confirmed, however all the technical indicators argue in this direction. Channel fluctuation to be considered is between 1.22-1.25 , and probably will remain valid until the end of 2011. Note also the pivot point at 1.2298 .

Focus on the fundamentals EURCHF of the day:

All investors have in mind the deadline of December 8 and 9 which could seal the fate of the euro. Without wishing to dramatize maturity, investors expect concrete answers that are quick to reverse the financial markets.The joint central bank last week, which joined the SNB, was an important political and economic signal, which has, in part, the resilience of financial markets this morning. But it will not be enough, and we’ll have to expect more maturity from 8 and 9 December approaches, to renewed volatility in financial markets should not spare the Swiss franc.